How’s the Real Estate Market?

The national real estate market has a big impact on Second and Vacation Home Buyers. Those looking to sell elsewhere and make your Move to Useppa Island - Find Out What the Experts Are Saying.

As we head into summer, it is a great time to review how the 2017 real estate market is doing so far. Here is what the experts are saying:

Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Chief Economist

“Positive demographic factors should continue to reshape the housing market, as rising employment and incomes appear to be positively influencing millennial home ownership rates.”

Diana Olick, CNBC

“Even as more homes come on the market for this traditionally popular sales season, they're flying off fast, with bidding wars par for the course. Home prices have now surpassed their last peak, and at the entry level, where demand is highest, sellers are firmly in the driver's seat.”

Daren Blomquist, Senior VP at Attom

"I am guessing we will see it get even better… If you are considering moving, it could be a really good time to sell."

Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

"The early returns so far this spring buying season look very promising as a rising number of households dipped their toes into the market and were successfully able to close on a home last month. Although finding available properties to buy continues to be a strenuous task for many buyers, there was enough of a monthly increase in listings…for sales to muster a strong gain. Sales will go up as long as inventory does."

Mark Fleming, First American Chief Economist

“Despite higher mortgage rates, the potential for home sales increased on an annual basis driven by steady income and job growth, along with a surge in building permits. While it may be a little late for this spring, the increase in building permits is a welcome sign that some relief may be in sight for the inventory shortages that are holding back many markets from realizing their full potential this spring.”

Keeping Current Matters - May 25, 2017

SW Florida Housing Market has Slowed – and That’s Good

NAPLES, Fla. – Feb. 24, 2016 – The housing market is showing signs of slowing and local experts say that's OK. 

Home resales are slowing – and so are land sales for new homes and developments.

"We're in the middle of a downshift in the marketplace. And it's a good thing," said Denny Grimes, president of Denny Grimes & Co. in Fort Myers.

Grimes was one of three expert speakers at Market Watch 2016, sponsored by the News-Press and held at the Harborside Event Center in downtown Fort Myers on Tuesday night. All agreed the housing market is changing in a big way, sharing their thoughts on the future of real estate with a sold-out crowd in the hundreds.

Generally speaking, home resales started falling from Sarasota to Naples in the last two to three months of 2015, Grimes said.
"It's kind of across the board," he said. "We saw sales down in Lee County 30 percent in January."

So what gives? While the roads are full, as they usually are in season, and buyers are out looking for houses, he said, the consumer confidence tank is "low on fuel."

Part of the low confidence, he said, is "our fault," with home prices rising too quickly.

"We have seen tremendous price increases in the last two or three years and we are pricing ourselves out of a lot of the market. You can ask for more, but buyers won't pay it," Grimes said.

There are a few exceptions. The luxury market in Naples is still going strong, with the volume of resales rising 18 percent in the more than $5 million price category and 11 percent in the $1 million to $5 million segment in 2015, over 2014.

"I think the luxury market and ultra luxury market is being driven by people saying, 'If not now, when?'" he said.

It's clear the "Louis Vuitton" market of Port Royal in Naples, he said, is different, with 37 existing homes selling there last year, generating more than $300 million in sales, for an average price of about $8 million. Homes don't really go "on sale" there, he said.

"You want to be in Port Royal? You pay the price and you come," Grimes said. "That is an anomaly. I can't find that type of behavior anywhere else. It may be the only place on the Gulf Coast of Florida like that, which speaks highly for that area."

Except for the ultra luxury market, he predicts home price growth will slow down this year, and could even retreat a little bit.

"We have to slow down. We are going too fast for our own good," Grimes said.

Randy Thibaut, president of Land Solutions Inc. in Fort Myers, agrees a slow down is needed, coming from a different angle.

Last year, new home permits soared in Lee, Collier and Charlotte counties. Builders pulled about 13,000 permits in the three counties, for a 44 percent increase over 2014. Lee saw the biggest increase and that was driven mostly by a boom in apartment construction.

Apartments are in higher demand because of the rising home prices. First-time buyers are still looking for homes priced at $200,000 to $250,000, which can be found in very few places in Southwest Florida, Thibaut said.

In Collier County, the median home price – the price at which half the homes sell for more, and half for less – rose to $430,000 in December. For that reason, it makes sense that Maple Ridge at Ave Maria, where there are still homes available for less than $300,000, was the top selling subdivision last year in all three counties, he said.

"The reason why is price and value," Thibaut said. "So it's one of the last places people can get a value."

Some of the buyers in Maple Ridge are coming from the east coast of Florida, and commuting back and forth to their same jobs over there because they can get more home for their money in Ave Maria and they often have a shorter drive than they would on Interstate 95. Thibaut described the trend as mind boggling.

"Wow," he said. "That is crazy."

Land prices for residential development now exceed where they were in 2005 at the "peak of the peak," which is giving builders reason to pause, Thibaut said.

"We are seeing builders, developers and equity firms starting to tap the brakes on land transactions because the prices in some cases, in a lot of cases, have gotten to the point where they can't meet buyers' price demand requirements and are pushing the limit to still make margins," he said.

The pause is good for many reasons, Thibaut said.

"We have a great shortage of labor and we are having a tough time meeting the demand for the sales and products that are being built and permitted," he said.

Some builders have already noticed a slowing demand for new homes, with several starting to offer incentives to entice buyers to purchase the inventory. One of the areas where that is happening is in the Immokalee Road corridor in North Naples, which has seen a surge in new construction over the past few years.

High-rise condominium construction is back, with five projects planned or under construction from Naples to Estero, and it will be something to watch this year, along with continued apartment construction, which one speaker described as "white hot," especially in Lee County.

"Apartments are really pulling the market," said Stan Stouder, a commercial real estate broker with CRE Consultants in Fort Myers.

He showed a picture of a tugboat pulling a big cargo ship to bring home his point. In Southwest Florida, he said, 2,557 apartment units will be built this year, twice the number as last year, Stouder said.

Apartments aren't just attracting students, but millennials with too much student debt and not enough money for a down payment, would-be buyers with bad credit, and even boomers who can no longer afford the hefty home prices.

"Boomers are coming in great waves," Stouder said. "But they are less affluent. So their pension plans might have been wiped out, their 401ks might have gone down. Their houses may be selling now, but selling for less than they hoped they could get. They still want to come to Florida. Maybe they can't afford a second home, but they can afford to rent an apartment."

Naples Daily News

Buyers Paying Cash in Southwest Florida

Home buyers in Southwest Florida are still paying with cash at one of the fastest rates in the nation.

Of the 10 metro areas with the highest share of cash purchases in the first quarter of 2015, more than half were in Florida, according to real estate analyst Zillow.

Florida Buyers Paying Cash

"In Florida, cash is king," Zillow said. "At the end of the first quarter, seven of the top 10 metros with the highest share of home purchases made in cash were in Florida, up from six at the end of 2014."

All 10 of the U.S. metro areas with the highest share of cash buyers were east of the Mississippi River, while cash buyers were less common in the western U.S.

"Homes in many eastern markets are generally less expensive than in their western counterparts, which can be conducive to more cash purchases," Zillow said. "Cash purchases are also more likely to be made by investors and institutional buyers looking to buy many less-expensive homes all at once to convert into rental housing and/or flip as the market improves."

In addition, the analyst noted, Florida's judicial foreclosure process can be slow, extending the period when investors are buying discounted homes from lenders as they clear foreclosure.

Florida posted the second-highest share of cash sales in June, at 45.8 percent, behind only New York's 47 percent, CoreLogic said.

The U.S. rate was 31.3 percent, down from 34 percent over the year.

"The cash sales share peaked in January 2011, when cash transactions made up 46.5 percent of total home sales nationally," CoreLogic said. "Prior to the housing crisis, the cash sales share of total home sales averaged approximately 25 percent. If the cash sales share continues to fall at the same rate it did in June 2015, the share should hit 25 percent by mid-2017."

Jim Quinn, president of the Port Charlotte-North Port-Punta Gorda Association of Realtors, said cash sales have "consistently" accounted for less than 50 percent of activity this year, with distressed properties representing a smaller segment of sales.

"I would say both of these trends are indicative that more of the buyers are purchasing for personal use as opposed to investment," he said.

No-financing sales accounted for 43 percent of home deals throughout Florida in August, while the U.S. average was 24.5 percent.

Herald Tribune 10/5/2015